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Home  /  Domestic Economy  /  Economic Outlook Survey | July 2014

Economic Outlook Survey | July 2014

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Highlights

FICCI’s latest Economic Outlook Survey puts across the GDP growth estimate for the year 2014-15 at 5.3%, with a minimum and a maximum range of 4.9% and 5.8%. This is a tad lower than the 5.5% growth estimate put out by the economists in the previous survey round and mainly on account of bleak agriculture prospects due to sub-par monsoon forecasts.

Median Growth forecast (2014-15)

  • Industry at 3.1%
  • Agriculture sector at 2.1%
  • Services sector at 7.0%

Fiscal Deficit

  • The median forecast for fiscal deficit stands at 4.5%, with minimum and maximum range of 4.2% and 5.5%.
  • Fiscal deficit to GDP ratio for 2014-15 to breach the target of 4.1% set in the interim budget.

Inflation

  • The El Nino effect is expected to fuel inflationary pressure going ahead.

Projections for Key Macro Economic Variables

macro-economic variables India

IIP-growth-forecast
WPI-growth-forecast
CPI-growth-forecast
capital-formation-growth-forecast

Looking forward to the forthcoming Union Budget

The focus of the budget should be on pushing growth and investments. Some of the other suggestions include-

  • Clear roadmap for implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST), which will give a huge boost to the economy. Review of the Direct Tax Code (DTC) with a view to widen the tax base and rationalizing exemptions. These big ticket reforms should be taken up as soon as possible.
  • Signal that the government is looking at strict fiscal prudence. Chart out a path to contain subsidies and switch the focus from non plan to plan expenditure. Put across a roadmap for disinvestment.
  • Positive indications for the manufacturing sector would be critical. It is imperative to firm up the growth in manufacturing sector, which will also aid employment generation enabling inclusive growth.
  • Boost infrastructure spending. Fast track implementation of stuck projects.
  • Indicate way forward on labor reforms

Read FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey in detail here

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